2022 shaping up to be a year of opportunity for those prepared
This is typically the time of year when forecasters issue their annual forecasts. Sure enough, MBA delivered theirs at the MBA Annual Convention recently. And while many of us are still doing a healthy refinance volume, we’ve all noticed the purchase volume creeping up (where inventory allows, of course).
The MBA has some good news and some bad news for the industry as to 2022. But even the “bad” news offers opportunity. Let’s start with the good stuff. By MBA’s calculations, purchase mortgage originations should grow to a new record of $1.73 trillion next year. In addition, MBA believes purchase originations will reach record levels again in 2023. It’s also calling for a total amount of mortgage originations in the amount of $2.59 trillion.
We’ll save the debate about bubbles, shortages and inventory for another time. For now, let’s presume MBA’s forecasters are pretty good at what they do (they typically are) and that the market will—as it usually does—find a way to meet demand. The good news is that, for mortgage businesses that want it and can go get it, there’s a lot of opportunity in the market coming up.
Even the bad news from the forecast, that refinance is expected to decline to a volume of $860 billion, can’t be completely unexpected. We’re coming off almost two years of historic volume. As much as we’d love to see the refinance market continue, we know that trees don’t grow through the clouds, and that what goes up must, sooner or later, go down. And it doesn’t truly dampen that total number: $2.59 trillion is a pretty good year most years.
Yes, the work will be different. Lenders (and title agents) will need to work harder to find improved efficiencies and reduce costs while staying engaged and bulking up marketing efforts. Fortunately, service providers like a certain agency we know can help their lender partners both with efficiencies and in making inroads in multiple markets across the country. The purchase market is truly local, and it’s often how well lenders have established their foothold in various communities that determines how well they fare from market to market. Take it from us. We’re in virtually all of the major markets across the country, and this isn’t our first go-round with purchase markets. We handle a lot of throughput at the national level, but we’re built on our local resource centers with a boots on the ground approach, rather than a single, centralized hub. In other words, we know the markets you want to be in and succeed.
We’re looking forward to assisting our lender partners with their turn-times, efficiencies, closing experiences and market familiarity. Already, we’re seeing our lending clients retooling for a competitive market. The opportunity will be there. You just have to be ready to go capture it!